Iranian Street Uprisings

I remember in 2011, among circles of friends or international co-workers, we sometimes discussed the so-called Arab Spring. Back then, people were excited that these series of bottom-up social uprisings would bring a whole wave of democracy and liberalism to the Middle Eastern countries and wipe the long-standing dictatorships; some of whom backed by the western states, as well. I was personally not very hopeful that Arabs would be rewarded with any freedom in results of their noble endeavors, even if they succeed toppling down their strong dictators or authoritarian regimes. Eleven years thereafter I, in my lack of hope, was arguably right. Egypt is more oppressive, Iraq is much more chaotic and not that democratic and free, Libya is a failed state, Syria is in civil war, and so on.

You see, democracy and liberalism are not achievable over night, rather are the results of decades of social evolutions (and not revolutions), during which democratic institutions are developed and nourished. Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder in their studies "Democratization and Civil War" (2008), using a statistical analysis, argue and confirm their hypothesis that in the aftermath of the collapsed authoritarian regimes and in the vacuum free from a centralized power and order, an initial stage of chaos is inevitable.

Only a strong leader or powerful political opposition group may bring this boat of the revolution back to the shore safe and sound from that chaotic journey. However, dictators and authoritarian regimes are normally effective, through years of being in absolute power, in eliminating all notable leadership in the oppositions.

The Iranian authoritarian regime, over four decades, has eliminated or politically paralyzed notable opposition including all technocratic leaders, political elites, social leaders, even most notable religious leaders. It is hardly arguable that the Iranians, mostly millennials, have achieved much in collapsing the Akhunds' authoritarian regime thus far, however even if they truly succeed, I am sadly not optimistic that it would be much of an achievement en route to freedom and liberalism; should anyone care in the first place.

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